{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "refreshed_at": "2026-08-21",
  "measurement_note": "These datasets answer different questions. Population use, survey adoption, active users, web-visit share and revenue must not be combined into one market-share estimate.",
  "headline": {
    "global_diffusion": {
      "value": 16.3,
      "unit": "%",
      "period": "H2 2025",
      "label": "of the world used generative AI",
      "definition": "Microsoft estimate of the share of the working-age population using a generative-AI product during the reporting period."
    },
    "organization_ai": {
      "value": 88,
      "unit": "%",
      "period": "2025",
      "label": "of surveyed organizations use AI",
      "definition": "Share of McKinsey survey respondents saying their organization uses AI in at least one business function, as reported by Stanford AI Index."
    },
    "eu_individuals": {
      "value": 32.66,
      "unit": "%",
      "period": "2025",
      "label": "of EU individuals used generative AI",
      "definition": "Eurostat share of individuals aged 16 to 74 reporting generative-AI use in the previous three months."
    }
  },
  "diffusion": {
    "definition": "Estimated share of the working-age population using generative AI during the half-year.",
    "regions": [
      {"name": "World", "h1_2025": 15.1, "h2_2025": 16.3},
      {"name": "Global North", "h1_2025": 22.9, "h2_2025": 24.7},
      {"name": "Global South", "h1_2025": 13.1, "h2_2025": 14.1}
    ],
    "economies": [
      {"name": "United Arab Emirates", "h1_2025": 59.4, "h2_2025": 64.0},
      {"name": "Singapore", "h1_2025": 58.6, "h2_2025": 60.9},
      {"name": "Norway", "h1_2025": 45.3, "h2_2025": 46.4},
      {"name": "Ireland", "h1_2025": 41.7, "h2_2025": 44.6},
      {"name": "France", "h1_2025": 40.9, "h2_2025": 44.0},
      {"name": "Spain", "h1_2025": 39.7, "h2_2025": 41.8},
      {"name": "New Zealand", "h1_2025": 37.6, "h2_2025": 40.5},
      {"name": "Netherlands", "h1_2025": 36.3, "h2_2025": 38.9},
      {"name": "United Kingdom", "h1_2025": 36.4, "h2_2025": 38.9},
      {"name": "Qatar", "h1_2025": 35.7, "h2_2025": 38.3},
      {"name": "Australia", "h1_2025": 34.5, "h2_2025": 36.9},
      {"name": "Israel", "h1_2025": 33.9, "h2_2025": 36.1},
      {"name": "Canada", "h1_2025": 33.5, "h2_2025": 35.0},
      {"name": "South Korea", "h1_2025": 25.9, "h2_2025": 30.7},
      {"name": "Germany", "h1_2025": 26.5, "h2_2025": 28.6},
      {"name": "United States", "h1_2025": 26.3, "h2_2025": 28.3},
      {"name": "South Africa", "h1_2025": 19.3, "h2_2025": 21.1},
      {"name": "Japan", "h1_2025": 16.7, "h2_2025": 19.1},
      {"name": "Mexico", "h1_2025": 16.7, "h2_2025": 17.8},
      {"name": "Brazil", "h1_2025": 15.6, "h2_2025": 17.1},
      {"name": "China", "h1_2025": 15.4, "h2_2025": 16.3},
      {"name": "India", "h1_2025": 14.2, "h2_2025": 15.7}
    ]
  },
  "eu_individuals": {
    "definition": "Share of individuals aged 16 to 74 who used generative-AI tools in the previous three months.",
    "period": "2025",
    "values": [
      {"code": "EU27_2020", "name": "European Union", "value": 32.66},
      {"code": "EA", "name": "Euro area", "value": 34.2},
      {"code": "BE", "name": "Belgium", "value": 42.01},
      {"code": "BG", "name": "Bulgaria", "value": 22.5},
      {"code": "CZ", "name": "Czechia", "value": 35.35},
      {"code": "DK", "name": "Denmark", "value": 48.44},
      {"code": "DE", "name": "Germany", "value": 32.25},
      {"code": "EE", "name": "Estonia", "value": 46.64},
      {"code": "IE", "name": "Ireland", "value": 44.93},
      {"code": "EL", "name": "Greece", "value": 44.09},
      {"code": "ES", "name": "Spain", "value": 37.88},
      {"code": "FR", "name": "France", "value": 37.46},
      {"code": "HR", "name": "Croatia", "value": 27.52},
      {"code": "IT", "name": "Italy", "value": 19.86},
      {"code": "CY", "name": "Cyprus", "value": 44.2},
      {"code": "LV", "name": "Latvia", "value": 33.4},
      {"code": "LT", "name": "Lithuania", "value": 36.89},
      {"code": "LU", "name": "Luxembourg", "value": 42.54},
      {"code": "HU", "name": "Hungary", "value": 29.56},
      {"code": "MT", "name": "Malta", "value": 46.46},
      {"code": "NL", "name": "Netherlands", "value": 44.7},
      {"code": "AT", "name": "Austria", "value": 39.42},
      {"code": "PL", "name": "Poland", "value": 22.68},
      {"code": "PT", "name": "Portugal", "value": 38.7},
      {"code": "RO", "name": "Romania", "value": 17.76},
      {"code": "SI", "name": "Slovenia", "value": 37.56},
      {"code": "SK", "name": "Slovakia", "value": 30.79},
      {"code": "FI", "name": "Finland", "value": 46.27},
      {"code": "SE", "name": "Sweden", "value": 42.01},
      {"code": "NO", "name": "Norway", "value": 56.32},
      {"code": "CH", "name": "Switzerland", "value": 47.02},
      {"code": "BA", "name": "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "value": 20.26},
      {"code": "MK", "name": "North Macedonia", "value": 22.03},
      {"code": "AL", "name": "Albania", "value": 27.28},
      {"code": "RS", "name": "Serbia", "value": 18.64},
      {"code": "TR", "name": "Türkiye", "value": 17.19},
      {"code": "XK", "name": "Kosovo*", "value": 44.85}
    ]
  },
  "organization_adoption": {
    "definition": "Share of surveyed organizations reporting regular use in at least one business function; self-reported and directional.",
    "source_note": "Source note, checked 31 July 2026: the Stanford chapter PDF and figure report 79% for generative AI; the chapter landing-page summary says 70%. This chart retains the figure value while the publisher’s pages disagree.",
    "series": [
      {"id": "all_ai", "name": "Any AI", "points": [{"year": 2023, "value": 55}, {"year": 2024, "value": 78}, {"year": 2025, "value": 88}]},
      {"id": "generative_ai", "name": "Generative AI", "points": [{"year": 2024, "value": 71}, {"year": 2025, "value": 79}]}
    ]
  },
  "adoption_gap": {
    "definition": "Separate survey signals showing the distance between broad organizational use and measured enterprise value. These values are not stages in a conversion funnel.",
    "enterprise_signals": [
      {"id": "regular_use", "name": "Regular AI use", "value": 88, "period": "2025", "definition": "Respondents saying their organization regularly uses AI in at least one business function."},
      {"id": "ebit_impact", "name": "Any enterprise EBIT impact", "value": 39, "period": "2025", "definition": "Respondents reporting any AI-attributable EBIT impact at enterprise level."},
      {"id": "high_performer", "name": "AI high performer", "value": 6, "period": "2025", "definition": "Respondents attributing at least 5% of EBIT to AI and reporting significant value from AI use."}
    ],
    "us_business_use": {
      "definition": "Share of U.S. businesses reporting AI use in any business function during the previous two weeks.",
      "period": "Period ending May 3, 2026",
      "values": [
        {"id": "all_businesses", "name": "All U.S. businesses", "value": 19.8},
        {"id": "employees_100_249", "name": "100-249 employees", "value": 32.0},
        {"id": "employees_250_plus", "name": "250+ employees", "value": 37.0},
        {"id": "information", "name": "Information sector", "value": 39.7},
        {"id": "finance_insurance", "name": "Finance and insurance", "value": 33.9},
        {"id": "retail_trade", "name": "Retail trade", "value": 14.0, "qualifier": "about"}
      ]
    }
  },
  "codex_adoption": {
    "definition": "Public product-adoption milestones. Codex weekly users and post-rollout active-user milestones have different scopes and are shown as separate series. The post-rollout source wording changes from combined Codex plus ChatGPT Work users to Codex users.",
    "distribution_event": {
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "label": "Product distribution changed",
      "description": "Codex became the new ChatGPT desktop app; the previous desktop app became ChatGPT Classic.",
      "implication": "Post-rollout counts change from combined to Codex-only wording and omit the activity window."
    },
    "series": [
      {
        "id": "codex_wau",
        "name": "Codex weekly users",
        "unit": "million users",
        "points": [
          {"date": "2026-02-27", "label": "Feb 27", "value": 1.6, "qualifier": "more than", "evidence": "OpenAI company disclosure"},
          {"date": "2026-06-02", "label": "Jun 2", "value": 5.0, "qualifier": "more than", "evidence": "OpenAI company disclosure"}
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "codex_chatgpt_work_active",
        "name": "Post-rollout active-user milestones",
        "unit": "million users",
        "points": [
          {"date": "2026-07-14", "label": "Jul 14", "value": 8.0, "qualifier": "reached", "population": "Codex + ChatGPT Work active users", "evidence": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead on X"},
          {"date": "2026-07-21", "label": "Jul 21", "value": 10.0, "qualifier": "milestone", "population": "Post-rollout active-user milestone", "evidence": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead on X"},
          {"date": "2026-08-13", "label": "Aug 13", "value": 15.0, "qualifier": "more than", "population": "Codex active users (post-rollout)", "evidence": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead on X"},
          {"date": "2026-08-21", "label": "Aug 21", "value": 20.0, "qualifier": "reached", "population": "Codex active users (post-rollout)", "evidence": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead on X"}
        ]
      }
    ],
    "caveat": "The post-rollout milestones follow a major desktop-app distribution change, shift from combined Codex plus ChatGPT Work wording to Codex wording and do not state a weekly or monthly activity window. Do not compare them directly with Codex-only WAU or interpret the increase as organic Codex adoption."
  },
  "frontier_telemetry": {
    "definition": "First-party behavioral studies of each vendor's own users, not cross-vendor market share or independent outcome audits.",
    "reports": [
      {
        "id": "codex_work",
        "provider": "OpenAI",
        "product": "Codex",
        "period": "May-June 2026",
        "sample": "Individual, organizational and OpenAI-user samples",
        "metrics": [
          {"value": "80.6%", "label": "users with at least one request estimated above 30 minutes of human work"},
          {"value": "70.2%", "label": "users with at least one request estimated above one hour"},
          {"value": "25.6%", "label": "users with at least one request estimated above eight hours"}
        ],
        "note": "Human-time equivalents estimate task scope, not time saved or business value."
      },
      {
        "id": "claude_code_work",
        "provider": "Anthropic",
        "product": "Claude Code",
        "period": "October 2025-April 2026",
        "sample": "About 400,000 interactive sessions from about 235,000 people",
        "metrics": [
          {"value": "20 h/week", "label": "average active Claude Code runtime per user"},
          {"value": "56%", "label": "sessions that wrote, fixed, tested or orchestrated code"},
          {"value": "70% / 80%", "label": "human planning decisions / Claude execution decisions in a typical session"}
        ],
        "note": "Excludes third-party IDE, SDK and headless usage; work types and decisions are classified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "web_traffic_share": {
    "definition": "Estimated share of visits to a tracked group of generative-AI websites. This is a directional web-attention proxy, not MAU, revenue share or total product reach.",
    "periods": ["May 2025", "March 2026", "May 2026"],
    "series": [
      {"id": "chatgpt", "name": "ChatGPT", "company": "OpenAI", "pattern": "solid", "values": [76.4, 56.7, 52.7]},
      {"id": "gemini", "name": "Gemini", "company": "Alphabet", "pattern": "long-dash", "values": [8.9, 25.5, 27.3]},
      {"id": "claude", "name": "Claude", "company": "Anthropic", "pattern": "dot", "values": [1.6, 6.0, 8.9]},
      {"id": "grok", "name": "Grok", "company": "SpaceX / xAI", "pattern": "dash-dot", "values": [null, 6.0, 2.8]},
      {"id": "perplexity", "name": "Perplexity", "company": "Perplexity AI", "pattern": "short-dash", "values": [null, 2.0, 1.3]}
    ],
    "evidence": "Secondary compilation of Similarweb observations; preserve as directional until a stable primary or licensed feed is available."
  },
  "player_ledger": [
    {
      "id": "chatgpt",
      "player": "ChatGPT",
      "company": "OpenAI",
      "market_status": "Private; confidential IPO filing reported",
      "reach": "900M+ weekly active users",
      "reach_period": "February 2026",
      "financial_signal": "$30B 2026 revenue target",
      "financial_kind": "projection reported by secondary sources",
      "note": "OpenAI also reported 50M+ consumer subscribers and 9M+ paying business users. WAU is a vendor-reported measure, not audited MAU."
    },
    {
      "id": "gemini",
      "player": "Gemini",
      "company": "Alphabet",
      "market_status": "Public parent (NASDAQ: GOOGL / GOOG)",
      "reach": "750M+ monthly active users",
      "reach_period": "Q4 2025",
      "financial_signal": "Not disclosed separately",
      "financial_kind": "Gemini is embedded across several Alphabet products",
      "note": "A later 900M+ MAU figure was reported from Google I/O 2026. The ledger keeps the 750M earnings-call disclosure as the primary-source baseline."
    },
    {
      "id": "claude",
      "player": "Claude",
      "company": "Anthropic",
      "market_status": "Private; confidential IPO filing reported",
      "reach": "No current company-wide MAU disclosed",
      "reach_period": "July 2026 check",
      "financial_signal": "$47B annualized run-rate revenue",
      "financial_kind": "company disclosure, May 2026",
      "note": "Revenue run rate is not realized annual revenue. Claude has unusually strong enterprise exposure, so consumer traffic understates its commercial footprint."
    },
    {
      "id": "grok",
      "player": "Grok",
      "company": "SpaceX / xAI",
      "market_status": "Public parent following SpaceX IPO",
      "reach": "117M monthly active users of Grok features",
      "reach_period": "March 2026",
      "financial_signal": "Not disclosed separately",
      "financial_kind": "xAI is reported inside the combined SpaceX group",
      "note": "The SEC filing covers Grok features across X, web and apps; it is broader than standalone chatbot traffic. December 2025 was 89M MAU."
    },
    {
      "id": "perplexity",
      "player": "Perplexity",
      "company": "Perplexity AI",
      "market_status": "Private",
      "reach": "No comparable current MAU disclosed",
      "reach_period": "July 2026 check",
      "financial_signal": "$450M-$500M annualized revenue",
      "financial_kind": "secondary estimate, Q2 2026",
      "note": "Queries, visits and MAU are often mixed in third-party summaries. The revenue range is useful as an order-of-magnitude estimate, not an audited result."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {"id": "microsoft_diffusion", "tier": "primary", "title": "Microsoft AI Economy Institute - Global AI Adoption in 2025", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/topics/ai-economy-institute/reports/global-ai-adoption-2025/", "supports": "World, regional and economy diffusion estimates"},
    {"id": "eurostat_individuals", "tier": "primary", "title": "Eurostat - Use of artificial intelligence by individuals", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Use_of_artificial_intelligence_by_individuals", "supports": "EU individual use and demographic definitions"},
    {"id": "stanford_index", "tier": "primary synthesis", "title": "Stanford HAI - 2026 AI Index, Economy", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "supports": "Organizational AI and generative-AI adoption"},
    {"id": "openai_scale", "tier": "vendor", "title": "OpenAI - Scaling AI for everyone", "url": "https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/", "supports": "ChatGPT WAU, subscribers, paying business users and February Codex weekly users"},
    {"id": "openai_codex_knowledge_work", "tier": "vendor", "title": "OpenAI - Codex is becoming a productivity tool for everyone", "url": "https://openai.com/index/codex-for-knowledge-work/", "supports": "Codex weekly active users in June 2026"},
    {"id": "openai_agents_work", "tier": "vendor telemetry study", "title": "OpenAI - How agents are transforming work", "url": "https://openai.com/index/how-agents-are-transforming-work/", "supports": "Codex task-horizon and cross-role usage telemetry"},
    {"id": "openai_chatgpt_work_launch", "tier": "vendor", "title": "OpenAI - ChatGPT is now a partner for your most ambitious work", "url": "https://openai.com/index/chatgpt-for-your-most-ambitious-work/", "supports": "ChatGPT Work launch, Codex-app migration, ChatGPT Classic rename and desktop distribution"},
    {"id": "openai_work_codex_help", "tier": "vendor support documentation", "title": "OpenAI Help - ChatGPT Work and Codex", "url": "https://help.openai.com/en/articles/20001275-chatgpt-work-and-codex", "supports": "Current separation of Chat, Work and Codex experiences"},
    {"id": "census_business_use", "tier": "government statistics", "title": "U.S. Census Bureau - Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI Users", "url": "https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2026/05/ai-use-businesses.html", "supports": "U.S. business AI use by firm size and sector"},
    {"id": "mckinsey_state_ai_2025", "tier": "primary survey publication", "title": "McKinsey - The state of AI in 2025", "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai", "supports": "Enterprise EBIT impact, scaling and high-performer signals"},
    {"id": "axios_codex_wau", "tier": "secondary report of vendor data", "title": "Axios - Office workers drive OpenAI's Codex growth", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/02/openai-codex-knowledge-workers", "supports": "Corroborating context for Codex weekly users in June 2026"},
    {"id": "openai_codex_8m", "tier": "vendor representative", "title": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead - 8M active users across Codex and ChatGPT Work", "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2077114635308986427", "supports": "Combined active-user milestone on July 14, 2026"},
    {"id": "openai_codex_10m", "tier": "vendor representative", "title": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead - 10M milestone", "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2079609157934886975", "supports": "Post-rollout 10M milestone accompanied by a reset for paid Codex and ChatGPT Work users on July 21, 2026"},
    {"id": "openai_codex_15m", "tier": "vendor representative", "title": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead - crossed 15M active users", "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2087706104814023111", "supports": "Codex active-user milestone disclosed on August 13, 2026; activity window unstated"},
    {"id": "openai_codex_20m", "tier": "vendor representative", "title": "OpenAI Codex engineering lead - Codex reached 20M active users", "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2090766694897619318", "supports": "Codex active-user milestone disclosed on August 21, 2026; activity window unstated"},
    {"id": "alphabet_q4", "tier": "primary company", "title": "Alphabet - Q4 2025 earnings call", "url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2025-Q4-Earnings-Call-2026-Dr_C033hS6/default.aspx", "supports": "Gemini app MAU"},
    {"id": "anthropic_series_h", "tier": "vendor", "title": "Anthropic - Series H funding announcement", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h", "supports": "Anthropic revenue run rate"},
    {"id": "anthropic_claude_code_expertise", "tier": "vendor telemetry study", "title": "Anthropic - Agentic coding and persistent returns to expertise", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/research/claude-code-expertise", "supports": "Claude Code session sample, runtime, work mix and decision-share telemetry"},
    {"id": "spacex_424b4", "tier": "regulatory filing", "title": "SpaceX - final IPO prospectus (SEC Form 424B4)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm", "supports": "Grok MAU and group structure"},
    {"id": "fatjoe_ai", "tier": "secondary", "title": "FATJOE - AI usage statistics", "url": "https://fatjoe.com/blog/ai-stats/", "supports": "Web-traffic-share compilation and market watchlist"},
    {"id": "fatjoe_chatgpt", "tier": "secondary", "title": "FATJOE - ChatGPT statistics", "url": "https://fatjoe.com/blog/chatgpt-stats/", "supports": "OpenAI revenue projection and reported IPO status"},
    {"id": "fatjoe_gemini", "tier": "secondary", "title": "FATJOE - Google Gemini statistics", "url": "https://fatjoe.com/blog/google-gemini-stats/", "supports": "Comparable web-traffic-share series"},
    {"id": "fatjoe_claude", "tier": "secondary", "title": "FATJOE - Claude statistics", "url": "https://fatjoe.com/blog/claude-ai-stats/", "supports": "Reported Anthropic IPO status and revenue context"},
    {"id": "fatjoe_grok", "tier": "secondary", "title": "FATJOE - Grok statistics", "url": "https://fatjoe.com/blog/grok-ai-stats/", "supports": "Grok market-share context"},
    {"id": "fatjoe_perplexity", "tier": "secondary", "title": "FATJOE - Perplexity statistics", "url": "https://fatjoe.com/blog/perplexity-ai-stats/", "supports": "Perplexity revenue range and market-share context"},
    {"id": "pickaxe_adoption_gap", "tier": "secondary synthesis", "title": "Pickaxe - What Is the AI Adoption Gap?", "url": "https://pickaxe.co/post/ai-adoption-gap", "supports": "Discovery and interpretation of access, usage and value gaps; chart values are traced to Census and McKinsey"},
    {"id": "haider_codex_growth", "tier": "secondary social post", "title": "Haider - Codex growth observation", "url": "https://x.com/haider1/status/2076963530763542590", "supports": "Discovery only; chart uses OpenAI disclosures and explicitly separated denominators"},
    {"id": "supporting_sources", "tier": "secondary watchlist", "title": "Additional supplied adoption-statistics sources", "url": "https://firstpagesage.com/seo-blog/chatgpt-usage-statistics/", "supports": "Cross-checking future refreshes; figures are not promoted automatically without definition and provenance checks"}
  ]
}